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1)
Determine how many are entering the jelly bean exploration business. The
rest of the audience will be the public. Now determine how many businesses
will want to buy at least the next level of information. Collect the
estimates and the first level of investment from those businesses that think
they have enough information.
2)
Remove the container from the tablecloth and the wire frame. Determine how
many of the remaining businesses want to buy the final level of information.
Collect this level of investment and the estimates from those who now think they
have sufficient information.
3) Open
the container and show the audience the top layer of beans. Announce that
the rules have changed. (They always do in the real world) Offer the remaining
businesses the opportunity to make a physical drill hole in the beans at the
cost of ________ (i.e. $0.25) per drill hole to see if there is a false bottom
in the container.
But before
the big spenders drill, ask the public if they are offended by this conspicuous
showing of wealth. Ask the public if their government, on behalf of the
public, should declare this wealth to be obscene and impose a "windfall profits
tax" that the government will use to find jelly beans.
After all the
consternation settles down, note that we will not impose this tax because such
actions inhibit freedoms and risk taking, which are foundations of our society.
In addition, private enterprise usually is more efficient and more cost
effective than any government program. If time permits, discuss what
activities are best left to government. All opinions are valid. Now
collect the third level of investment and the estimates from those who will not
drill for additional information.
4) Hide
the drilling activity from the rest of the audience with the tablecloth.
Collect the final investment and estimates. Empty the container into a bag
and show the audience the false bottom, which is along the sides of the
container. Ask how many drillers made their hole in the center of the
container.
5)
Award the beans and the investments to the business with the closest estimate.
Ask if any participants tried to make their estimates scientifically by
multiplying an estimation of length, times width times height, times bean
density - in beans per cubic inch to determine the total number of beans.
How much
information did the winner buy? Did they feel that they got an adequate
return on their investment? Did the non-winners feel that they got an
adequate return?
As the
audience is sharing the beans, note that the odds are that if this same audience
was to do this exercise again with a new container and new beans that some other
business would be the winner. However, today's winner could participate
because he had profits from today to invest tomorrow since this is a free
enterprise.
(Note:
For advanced audiences this exercise can be done to also demonstrate the use on
Monte Carlo Simulation to estimate uncertainties. In this case all
estimates are made in terms of distribution. The winner is determined from
the mean or average of the resulting distribution from the computer simulation.)
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