Linking energy, the economy, the environment
  YOU ARE HERE > Home > Projects > Jelly Bean Game:  The Decisions
  Home
  Projects
    Programs
    ELP Standards
    NSE Standards
  Public Outreach
  Who We Are
    History
    Profile
    The People
    Sponsors
  Site Map
Jelly Bean Game:  The Decisions

 

1)  Determine how many are entering the jelly bean exploration business.  The rest of the audience will be the public.  Now determine how many businesses will want to buy at least the next level of information.  Collect the estimates and the first level of investment from those businesses that think they have enough information. 

2)  Remove the container from the tablecloth and the wire frame.  Determine how many of the remaining businesses want to buy the final level of information.  Collect this level of investment and the estimates from those who now think they have sufficient information. 

3)  Open the container and show the audience the top layer of beans.  Announce that the rules have changed. (They always do in the real world) Offer the remaining businesses the opportunity to make a physical drill hole in the beans at the cost of ________ (i.e. $0.25) per drill hole to see if there is a false bottom in the container. 

But before the big spenders drill, ask the public if they are offended by this conspicuous showing of wealth.  Ask the public if their government, on behalf of the public, should declare this wealth to be obscene and impose a "windfall profits tax" that the government will use to find jelly beans. 

After all the consternation settles down, note that we will not impose this tax because such actions inhibit freedoms and risk taking, which are foundations of our society.  In addition, private enterprise usually is more efficient and more cost effective than any government program.  If time permits, discuss what activities are best left to government.  All opinions are valid.  Now collect the third level of investment and the estimates from those who will not drill for additional information.

4)  Hide the drilling activity from the rest of the audience with the tablecloth.  Collect the final investment and estimates.  Empty the container into a bag and show the audience the false bottom, which is along the sides of the container.  Ask how many drillers made their hole in the center of the container. 

5)  Award the beans and the investments to the business with the closest estimate.  Ask if any participants tried to make their estimates scientifically by multiplying an estimation of length, times width times height, times bean density - in beans per cubic inch to determine the total number of beans.

How much information did the winner buy?  Did they feel that they got an adequate return on their investment?  Did the non-winners feel that they got an adequate return?

As the audience is sharing the beans, note that the odds are that if this same audience was to do this exercise again with a new container and new beans that some other business would be the winner.  However, today's winner could participate because he had profits from today to invest tomorrow since this is a free enterprise.

(Note:  For advanced audiences this exercise can be done to also demonstrate the use on Monte Carlo Simulation to estimate uncertainties.  In this case all estimates are made in terms of distribution.  The winner is determined from the mean or average of the resulting distribution from the computer simulation.)

 

 

 


Back to Top
 


                                                                        sponsored by The Energy Literacy Project
                                                               we welcome your feedback